How Trump built a new coalition to send him back to the White House

The outcome of this year’s presidential election is no longer in question after race calls in the Midwest early Wednesday morning. But we’re still learning how Donald Trump built a new coalition to send him back to the White House he lost four years ago. Geoff Bennett and Amy Walter discussed the dynamics behind Trump’s comeback.
Geoff Bennett:
We are continuing to learn new information about how president-elect Trump built a new coalition to send him back to the White House that he lost four years ago.
Here to help us understand the dynamics behind Trump’s comeback is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter.
Amy, it’s great to have you back here at the desk.
Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:
Yes, it’s like we never left.
(Laughter)
Geoff Bennett:
Right.
So we are learning more about what motivated voters last night. And it’s clear that the economy was by far the top issue. And voters broke strongly in Trump’s favor as a result. Forty percent of voters say it was their biggest concern. And of those who did, 60 percent voted for the former president, while 38 percent backed Vice President Kamala Harris.
What more can you tell us about how Trump managed to make this his issue?
Amy Walter:
Yes, it is the issue that we always knew was in the minds of voters. Any time you talk to a voter about the election, the first thing they would bring up is the cost of stuff.
Now, the Harris campaign was hopeful that because inflation was going down, because economic optimism was ticking up a bit, that maybe it would lessen some of this frustration about the state of the economy. It really didn’t work out so — in that direction.
And so she, as the incumbent party, is punished by voters who say, we really didn’t — we really didn’t like this inflation. And what we also remember is, when Donald Trump was in office, I had more money in my pocket.
And that was the other thing that was notable about some of these AP vote cast surveys is what we saw in other data coming into the election. The retrospective opinion about Donald’s Trump presidency was much more positive than it was even when he was president. And I think that is largely because of the economy.
Geoff Bennett:
There’s some interesting demographic breakdowns too. Black voters broke for Kamala Harris 83 to 16 percent. Harris also won the Latino vote 56 percent to 42 percent.
But Trump managed to cut into those margins. And we should also say that Donald Trump has won the majority of white women voters for the third straight time.
Amy Walter:
That’s right.
Geoff Bennett:
What’s behind these numbers?
Amy Walter:
And I do. I think that’s really important to appreciate all of that.
Since 2008, Democrats have basically run on a version of the Obama coalition, thinking that the way — and it’s been working — that the way to win an election is by turning out a lot of young people, who will break overwhelmingly for Democrats and, running up good margins with Black voters and Latino voters.
And that did not work in this election. I think the other really notable thing about younger voters isn’t just that the margin is much smaller, something like eight points that Harris won them by, as opposed to 23 points that Biden carried those younger voters.
But the difference — we talked about this a lot the other night, or…
Geoff Bennett:
Last night, in fact, or this morning.
Amy Walter:
It was today or whenever it was that we’ve been talking.
Geoff Bennett:
That’s right. It was this morning.
Amy Walter:
But just that younger men and younger women, the gap between them, and with younger men supporting Trump by 14 points and younger women supporting Harris by 18 points, there is no other generation that has a gap as wide as this Generation Z.
Geoff Bennett:
And to your point, the vice president struggled with a voting bloc that typically breaks for Democrats. That’s younger voters.
Amy Walter:
Right.
Geoff Bennett:
She won them by six points. Within that group, Trump won young men 56 to 42, as you say. So how should we understand how age and gender divides are shifting?
Amy Walter:
Yes, I think this is going to be a fascinating topic for all of us, not just who cover politics, but who want to understand our culture, how much differently young men and young women see the world and what they’re — what they’re viewing, the kind of people that speak to them in terms of really connecting with them.
And Donald Trump made a concerted effort to go after these young men where they are. He didn’t reach them just by TV ads. He went on their podcasts. He went on YouTube channels. He was endorsed by many of the folks that are considered sort of heroes of that younger male generation.
Now, Harris had hoped that getting younger women out — remember, she has the endorsement of Taylor Swift, Beyonce, many other high-profile figures, and she leaned very much into the issue of women’s reproductive freedom. Now, that did give her a significant advantage with those younger voters.
But, overall, she didn’t do any better with women — and we will have to wait until the final numbers come in. But it may be that she does not have as big of a margin with women as Biden did or even Hillary Clinton did.
And your point about white voters is also really important. She basically hit the same metrics as Biden did among white women, white men, white — white college voters, white non-college voters didn’t improve or really lose much ground.
But I think it is important to remember that those voters, they make up the majority of the vote. So, again, what Harris had been banking on was losing some of those Obama coalition voters, but making it up with either white women overall or this sort of college-educated suburban voter. And that just didn’t come to pass.
Geoff Bennett:
Amy Walter, thanks so much for being here. We appreciate it.
Amy Walter:
Glad to be here.